AP Statistics · Unit 2 · Topic 2.8

Random Variables and Probability Distributions Study Lab

A random variable assigns a number to each outcome of a chance process. Its probability distribution lists every possible value and its probability. Edit a distribution, check whether it is valid, and shade the values that make up an event like "at most 2" or "more than 3."

1. Build a distribution, then find probabilities

A valid discrete distribution has every probability between 0 and 1, and the probabilities add to exactly 1.

0 ≤ P(X = x) ≤ 1 Σ P(X = x) = 1 P(X ≥ k) = 1 − P(X ≤ k − 1)
Preset distributions

Distribution

Probability histogram shaded bars are in the event

Event
and
Total probability
Probability of the event
Complement
Most likely value

Show your work

Cumulative distribution P(X ≤ x)

Continuous random variables: probability is area

A continuous random variable can take any value in an interval. Its probabilities are areas under a density curve whose total area is 1, so P(X = exactly one value) = 0 and ≤ means the same as <.

A bus arrives at a random time in a 20-minute window, so the wait X is uniform from 0 to 20 minutes. The density is a flat line at height 1/20 = 0.05.

Uniform density shaded area = probability

2. Key ideas

Random variable

A number from chance

A random variable, like X = number of heads in 3 flips, takes numerical values that depend on the outcome of a chance process. Use capital letters for the variable and lowercase for a specific value.

Discrete

Countable values

A discrete random variable takes a fixed set of separate values, often counts like 0, 1, 2, 3. Its distribution is a table or a probability histogram, and you find probabilities by adding bars.

Continuous

Any value in an interval

A continuous random variable, like a waiting time, can take any value in a range. Probabilities are areas under a density curve, and any single exact value has probability 0.

Valid?

Two rules

Every probability must be between 0 and 1, and all the probabilities must add to 1. A missing probability is often found by subtracting the others from 1.

Wording

"At least" vs. "more than"

For a discrete variable, "at least 3" includes 3, but "more than 3" does not. Translate the words into ≤, <, ≥, or > before adding probabilities.

Cumulative

Running totals

The cumulative probability P(X ≤ x) adds every probability up to and including x. It rises from the first value to 1 at the largest value.

3. Translate the words

For a discrete random variable with values 0, 1, 2, …, these phrases mean different sets of values.

PhraseSymbolValues included (k = 3)Shortcut
Exactly 3P(X = 3)3Read the table
At most 3, no more than 3P(X ≤ 3)0, 1, 2, 3Cumulative probability at 3
Fewer than 3, less than 3P(X < 3)0, 1, 2Same as P(X ≤ 2)
At least 3, 3 or moreP(X ≥ 3)3, 4, 5, …1 − P(X ≤ 2)
More than 3, greater than 3P(X > 3)4, 5, …1 − P(X ≤ 3)
Between 2 and 4 (inclusive)P(2 ≤ X ≤ 4)2, 3, 4P(X ≤ 4) − P(X ≤ 1)
For a continuous XP(X < 3) = P(X ≤ 3)An interval, not a listArea under the density curve

4. On the FRQ

How to earn the points

  • Define the random variable in context: "Let X = the number of customers who buy coffee in a group of 4."
  • Write the probability statement before the answer: "P(X ≥ 2) = P(X = 2) + P(X = 3) + P(X = 4) = 0.30 + 0.15 + 0.05 = 0.50."
  • For a missing probability, show the subtraction: "P(X = 4) = 1 − (0.10 + 0.25 + 0.40 + 0.15) = 0.10."
  • To justify that a table is a valid distribution, state both rules: each probability is between 0 and 1, and they sum to 1.
  • Interpret in context: "There is about a 50% chance that at least 2 of the 4 customers buy coffee."

Common mistakes

  • Including the endpoint for "more than" or "fewer than." Those are strict inequalities.
  • Using the complement with the wrong cutoff: P(X ≥ 3) is 1 − P(X ≤ 2), not 1 − P(X ≤ 3).
  • Treating the values of X as probabilities. The x row is outcomes; the P(x) row is probabilities.
  • Giving a continuous variable a positive probability for one exact value.
  • Accepting a "distribution" whose probabilities add to 0.95 or 1.10. It is not valid.

5. Practice questions

AP-style multiple choice. Pick an answer to see the explanation.

0 / 0 correct

6. Key terms

The vocabulary for topic 2.8. Read the list, flip through flashcards, or quiz yourself. For every term in the unit, see the Unit 2 terminology guide.